Belarus – Poland: Return to the past

Anna Maria Dyner

Summary

In the first two months of 2020, the interaction between Belarus and Poland remained at the level achieved in the last three years. Parliamentary representatives met regularly to discuss regional security and oil supplies through Poland to Belarus.

The first factor that disrupted mutual contacts was the coronavirus pandemic and restrictions associated with it. The other one was the presidential election in Belarus in August, the mass protests and repressions that followed immediately after the election. Alexander Lukashenko accused Poland, among others, of seeking to undermine the Belarusian statehood and interfere in internal affairs.

In the following months, Belarus demanded that Poland drastically reduce its diplomatic staff. Activists of the Polish minority faced more and more problems. The Polish authorities did not recognize Alexander Lukashenko as a legitimate president and went to strengthen sanctions against representatives of the regime, supporting Belarusian independent organizations and mass media and providing assistance to the repressed. Thus, as of the end of 2020, bilateral relations were the worst since 2011.

Trends:

Political relations

The beginning of 2020 foreshadowed the deepening of Belarusian-Polish relations. In January, Marshal of the Polish Senate Tomasz Grodzki and Belarusian Ambassador Vladimir Chushev met in Warsaw to discuss inter-parliamentary cooperation. On February 10, Belarus and Poland signed an agreement on the protection of transboundary waters. Both countries were to create a special commission for cooperation in this area.

On February 4, a solemn ceremony dedicated to the 274th anniversary of the birth of Tadeusz Kosciuszko was held in Minsk, organized by the Embassies of the Republic of Poland and the United States. In addition to the Polish Ambassador and the US Charge d'affaires, the event was attended by the Foreign Ministers of Belarus and Lithuania.

Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei was scheduled to visit Poland in March, but due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the closure of Poland's borders on March 14, the meeting was held online on March 20. One of the important topics raised during the negotiations was the issue of crude oil supplies through Poland to Belarus.

The second issue was the coronavirus joint pandemic response. Already in April, it became clear that these were not only declarations: the first large humanitarian convoy was sent to Belarus – including with personal protective equipment necessary to fight COVID-19. The second large batch was sent in early June. Despite the difficulties associated with the coronavirus crisis, in 2020 Poland allocated almost 170 million PLN for the implementation of development projects, including the fight against the pandemic in Belarus.

On May 6, in a telephone conversation, the Foreign Ministers of the two countries touched upon the further development of bilateral relations and cooperation within the framework of the Eastern Partnership. Another telephone conversation between Ministers Jacek Czaputowicz and Vladimir Makei took place on July 31 at the Polish initiative. The Ministers discussed the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus.

It should also be emphasized that the Foreign Ministers of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine expressed hope that the new format of cooperation called the “Lublin Triangle”1 would be expanded in the future at the expense of Belarus.

However, the factor that changed almost everything in Belarusian-Polish relations was the presidential election in Belarus and the events that followed – mass protests of Belarusians against election fraud, as well as an unprecedented scale of repression against demonstrators. After the election, Alexander Lukashenko repeatedly accused Poland (along with Lithuania, other EU and NATO countries) of inciting protests, trying to destabilize the internal situation in the country, supporting the opposition and waging an information war against Belarus (in particular, the BELSAT TV channel and the NEXTA telegram channel). Warsaw was accused of wanting to annex the western part of Belarus.

At the same time, Poland did not recognize either the election, or its results and the presidency of Alexander Lukashenko. At international forums, the Polish government demanded the introduction of sanctions, pointing out that the Belarusian authorities violate human rights. Moreover, Poland provided significant support to repressed citizens and opposition activists who were forced to flee Belarus.

In October 2020, there was a serious decline in bilateral diplomatic relations. At the beginning of the month, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry decided to summon its ambassadors to Poland and Lithuania to Minsk, demanding the same from Warsaw and Vilnius. The Belarusian side also demanded that the Polish and Lithuanian authorities reduce the diplomatic staff to the number of Belarusian diplomats working in each of these states. Poland, in particular, should have reduced the number of diplomats from 50 to 18 people.

Historical issues also remained controversial. Another scandal in Belarus was caused by the march organized in February in Hajnówka in honor of Romuald Rajs. Polish right-wing circles consider him one of the “cursed soldiers”, while most Polish and Belarusian historians recognize that he is responsible for the murder of civilians of Belarusian nationality, which was committed by a squadron under his command in 1946. Another reason for controversy is the idea to declare “National Unity Day” on 17 September2 – the day of the Soviet attack on the Second Polish Republic.

Economic relations

As in the case of political relations, the beginning of 2020 seemed promising in terms of the development of economic contacts. In mid-January, “Homieltransneft Druzhba” announced that Belarus has the technical capacity to import crude oil through Poland. The physical reverse of the raw materials pumped through the Druzhba pipeline was used back in 2019 when carrying out work to eliminate the consequences of contaminated Russian oil that entered this system. The problem, however, is that the Polish Druzhba pipeline system at the section between the border with Belarus (Adamava) and the oil refinery in Plock is not adapted for the simultaneous transportation of crude oil in both directions. However, in March, PERN Przyjań SA issued a statement that the Adamava – Plock section would be under construction.

Belarus can import oil through the oil port in Gdansk. Negotiations on the implementation of these opportunities were conducted by the Belneftekhim concern and partners from the Polish side in February-March 2020. However, the projects were suspended after the presidential elections in Belarus due to the sharp deterioration of bilateral political relations.

In turn, the COVID-19 pandemic was a factor that, since March, has actually hindered mutual contacts between the business circles of neighboring countries. As a result, many cyclical events, congresses, exhibitions, and conferences were canceled or organized online in a limited format. Moreover, Belarus, pointing to phytosanitary problems, temporarily restricted the import of poultry meat from Poland to its territory several times. Despite this, in 2020, Poland, with a share of 4%, was the fifth trading partner of Belarus.3

According to Belstat, in 2020, the trade turnover between the two countries amounted to USD 2.489 billion, a decrease of 5.1% compared to 2019.4 Interestingly, Belstat reported a positive balance of trade in goods for the second year in a row, which in 2019 was not confirmed by the data of the Ministry of Development of the Republic of Poland.5

Security relations

The rapid deterioration of Belarusian-Polish political relations after the presidential election in Belarus had a negative impact on security cooperation. Here, as in the case of political issues, the beginning of the year did not indicate any drastic changes.

On January 30, a group of Belarusian servicemen arrived in Poland to check one of the units, which was carried out in accordance with the provisions of the Vienna Document of 2011.

In March, the Air Force and Air Defense exercises of Poland and Belarus were held, the purpose of which was to prevent incidents in the border airspace of both countries. The event was planned in 2019 as part of cooperation during the 2021 IIHF World Championship in Minsk and the 2023 European Games to be held in Krakow. Deputy Foreign Minister of Belarus Oleg Kravchenko spoke about the joint responsibility for security in the region during the celebration of the Constitution Day, organized by the Embassy of the Republic of Poland on May 3 in Minsk.

At the same time, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the full implementation of the NATO Defender Europe 2020 exercise was not completed. The events planned in Poland could become a source of tension in bilateral relations.

However, security cooperation stopped after the presidential election in Belarus. In particular, Alexander Lukashenko said that NATO has hostile intentions towards Belarus, unreasonably increases its military presence in Poland and the Baltic states and conducts intensive exercises on the eastern flank.

The Belarusian leader accused Warsaw of wanting to annex Hrodna region to Poland. The alleged threat from NATO countries, especially Poland and the Baltic states, was also repeatedly mentioned by Alexander Lukashenko during the CSTO meetings. As a response, Belarus organized military exercises on the border with Poland, and also changed the scenario of the maneuvers of the “Slavic Brotherhood”.

At the second stage of the exercise, the number of soldiers involved increased to 6,000 people, including 1,000 people from Russia. 500 weapon units were used, including tanks and aircraft (100 units from Russia). In addition, the scenario was adapted to the need to work out the defense of the Union State against threats from NATO, which Belarus signaled.

The intensification of the exercises on the Polish border led to several military incidents. All this, along with the deepening of the Belarusian-Russian military integration, stopped the existing security cooperation between Poland and Belarus.

Social relations and regional cooperation

Further development of social contacts was primarily hindered by the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic, which at times hindered cross-border contacts. According to the Polish Border Service, in 2020, the border between Poland and Belarus was crossed a little more than three million times, which is 66% less than in 2019. The coronavirus pandemic also caused Poland to issue only 170,000 visas to Belarusian citizens in 2020.6

At the same time, according to a survey conducted by the Center for Oriental Studies, almost 60.0% of the Belarusians surveyed positively assessed their attitude to Poland, and 74.4% – to the Poles. In turn, according to a CBOS survey conducted in March 2021, 47% of polled Poles expressed their sympathy for Belarusians, compared to 31% a year earlier.7 Such a sharp increase in sympathy is most likely the result of the reaction of Poles to the ongoing protests in Belarus since August, as well as the growing economic migration of Belarusians to Poland. It should be noted that this is the best result since the CBOS studies, that is, since the early 1990s.

Thanks to the “Poland – Belarus – Ukraine 2020” program, it became possible to further modernize border control at the Kuznica – Bialostocka – Bruzhi, Bobrowniki – Berastavica, Sławatycze – Damačava crossings. Within the framework of this program, Belarusian institutions received eight grants for projects related to historical heritage. The money was also transferred to the reconstruction of the estate of the nobles of the Rejtans, which is located in the village of Hrušaŭka in Liachaviči district.

In addition, as part of the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, the purchase of six respirators and two oxygen concentrators for the Brest Regional Hospital was funded. As part of the “Poland – Belarus – Ukraine 2020” program, the construction of a center for helping children with autism spectrum disorders began in Brest. The construction of the Emergency Services Security Center was also completed here.

Conclusion

The events of 2020 showed how fragile the foundations on which Belarusian-Polish relations develop, are, and how much these relations depend on the internal political dynamics in Belarus. In this context, it is not an exaggeration to say that four years of striving for better relationships were crossed out in a few days.

Given the high probability that Alexander Lukashenko will remain in power in the next few months, no improvement in the Belarusian-Polish bilateral relations should be expected. At the same time, it should be feared that the Polish minority in Belarus will become a victim of the deterioration of the situation in the country, as it happened in previous years. All contentious issues, such as those related to the historical policies of both countries, are likely to be escalated as well.

Bilateral relations will be negatively affected by the deepening integration of Belarus and Russia, which limits the sovereignty of Belarus. The Polish side is concerned about the rapid acceleration of these processes, especially in the military dimension, which will negatively affect regional security in general.

The development of bilateral relations will also be negatively affected by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which restricts trade, regional cooperation and tourism.

2021 will be a very difficult year for bilateral relations, and this will affect trade, investment and social contacts.