Social mood in Belarus: Hope dies first

Andrei Vardamatski

A majority of Belarusians consider the year 2013 to be not quite successful for the country, but mostly successful for themselves. Approximately half of them feel happy and hopeful about the future. However, it was the feeling of hope that tended to slide downward on the chart the most. The Belarusians showed tolerance when making assessments, and extremely negative and extremely positive answers were not popular.

In 2013, social expectations decreased compared with 2012. More people feel uncertain about the future and fewer were looking into the future with confidence (Figure 1).1 The proportion of those feeling hope decreased almost 10%. At the same time, other indicators of social mood have not changed considerably since 2012. Apparently, fading positive expectations indicate a premonition that the next wave of crisis was about to sweep over the country. Hope dies first.

Figure 1. How do you feel when you think about the coming year?

The correlation between these indicators and the subjective sense of happiness is also important: the percentage of those feeling hopeful decreased and the percentage of those feeling happy remained unchanged (Figure 2). This is the digital empirical expression of Belarusian tolerance, tolerance to everything.

Figure 2. Assessing all aspects of life in general, would you say that you were … in the year …?

The subjective feeling of happiness has not changed since 2012. After the 2011 recession when this feeling fell almost 19%, the situation came to a halt. Every second Belarusian believes that he or she was quite happy in 2013. The same number of Belarusians gave the same answer in 2012 (see Figure 2). How can these 52% be interpreted? We observe a typical situation: “this glass is so beautifully half full” or “this glass is so terribly half empty.” The comparative sociological data, which we use here, indicate a fairly high level of conviction in achieving personal happiness among Belarusians.

The success/failure indicator shows no dynamics either. Nothing has changed since 2012, thus the number of the successful is about the same as the number of the happy (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Generally speaking, how was the year for you personally?

It should be noted that the micro assessment, i.e. the assessment of the degree of personal success was more positive and optimistic than the macro assessment, i.e. the assessment of the country’s success (see Figures 3 and 4). The difference is impressive, reaching 17%! This is a consistent pattern manifested in assessments of the economic situation: the personal economic situation is perceived better than the situation in the country. “The country is in a bad situation, but I personally will find a way out. I will find a few more jobs, will work 18 hours a day, etc., but I will somehow provide for my family and myself.” (Figure 4). We believe that this distinguishing of macro and micro indicators is a digital expression of the ‘parallel society’ phenomenon. “The country lives its life, and its inhabitants live their lives.”

Figure 4. Generally speaking, how, in your opinion, was the outgoing year for our country (Belarus)?

Conclusion

The dynamics of the social mood in Belarus over the past four years suggests that after the shock in 2011, Belarusians generally lowered their social expectations and partly reconciled with the upcoming hardships.