Editorial Foreword

Belarusian Yearbook 2013 presents a comprehensive analysis of the key developments in the main sectors of the state and society. Since its inception a decade ago, the Belarusian Yearbook has evolved as a crucial annual initiative of the Belarusian analytical community to compile, conceptualize and present a chronicle of Belarus’ contemporary history.

The two distinctive features of the period under review are the stagnation and gradual erosion of the ‘Belarusian model.’ The trends that were first identified by the Belarusian Yearbook in 2011 continued throughout 2013, including the curtailment of the social responsibility of the state, loss of governability, and increase in the dependence on Russia, decline in Belarus’ independence in external policy, deterioration of foreign trade performance and the competitiveness of Belarusian-made products. The attempts by the authorities to modernize the economy, streamline and transform the social policy were ad hoc (unsupported by a specific program of reforms) and were often simulated, i.e. their initiators had no plans to achieve any real results. The expanding deficit of resources forced the state to ‘optimize’ many sectors, which brought about cuts in financing and personnel. The country spent virtually the entire year waiting for something to happen or some external force to give an impetus to further development or change the status quo.

The main trends observed in the year 2013 were:

• Reduction in the potential of economic growth amid a lack of structural reforms
• Transfer into the cyclical recession phase, accompanied by a broadening of the foreign exchange deficit;
• Crisis of governability, which is manifested in inconsistent activities of the state authorities and failure to execute orders of higher-level agencies against the backdrop of a personnel crisis;
• Simulation of transformation tagged as ‘optimization’ and ‘modernization’ that are interpreted as reductions in the operation and staff of the socially-oriented sectors of the economy, and simulated technical upgrading of production;
• Increase in the reliance on Russia for decision-making in economy, foreign policy and defense in conditions of growing disparities between the Customs Union troika (Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan) amid intensified Eurasian integration processes;
• Cautious mitigation of the relationship with the European Union;
• Stagnation of election ratings and level of confidence in the authorities.

Contributing to Belarusian Yearbook 2013 were independent analysts and experts, as well as specialists representing various think tanks, including the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS), the Research Center of the Institute for Privatization and Management, the Agency of Humanitarian Technologies, NOVAK Axiometrical Research Laboratory, the Belarusian Analytical Workshop (Warsaw, Poland), the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS), the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC), the Centre for Eastern Studies (Warsaw, Poland), eBelarus Research Center, Agency for Social and Political Expert Appraisal, and the website of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (‘Our opinion’).