Editorial Foreword

Belarusian Yearbook 2018 is a comprehensive analysis of the key developments in the main sectors of the state and society in 2017. The main processes underlying the political agenda in 2017 were the gradual withdrawal from recession amidst favorable terms of foreign trade, settlement of some discrepancies in the relationship with Russia, and conspicuous attempts of the Belarusian authorities to adapt to the changing environment. However, as most of the Yearbook’s experts note, this adaptation is belated and insufficiently consistent.

The state’s domestic policy can be described as a cautious search for methods to reform the economy and mechanisms to control people’s sentiments that would produce the least impact on the political system now that the previous social contract has been de facto dissolved. The year was also marked by unsuccessful attempts to put in place a smaller sized and more effective state machine. The authorities “paused” their efforts to address the hoary structural socio-economic problems and started creating “growth points” in the form of elements of dialogue with society, changeover of the media, campaigns to pursue narrow liberalization of the business environment and create a “new” (digital) economy within the unreformed old framework. Political reforms were postponed indefinitely.

In foreign policy, official Minsk continued to rely on the gradual normalization with the West, seeking to maximize its benefits from the transformation of the EU’s approaches to Eastern Europe, as well as its role as a facilitator in resolving the conflict in Ukraine. The normalization of the Belarus-U.S. relationship continued in 2017, but at a slower pace. At the beginning of the year, Minsk took an unprecedented diplomatic step — it unilaterally abolished entry visas for citizens of 80 countries of the world. The relationship between Belarus and Russia also went through a kind of normalization: the two countries managed to move towards the settlement of a number of serious conflicts and disputes dating from 2016. However, the level of the engagement between Moscow and Minsk decreased as against the pre-conflict era. In terms of Belarus’s relations with developing countries, the year 2017 was characterized by a revision of the efficiency of investments — in a broad sense — in this area.

The economy saw the commencement of recovery growth against the backdrop of an improved external environment. At the end of the year, Belarus showed all-time best results in terms of inflation and current account of the balance of payments. Demand for labor also recovered; however, the number of people employed in the economy continued to decline, whereas the problem of unemployment remains relevant, especially in the regions. Tensions in the labor market were manifested in mass protests against Decree No. 3.

Public opinion polls recorded a surge of discontent at the government’s economic policies in February 2017 — the nation spat out its hard economic self-sentiment and its insulted sense of justice. However, no radical changes took place, and by the end of the year, all of the main indicators went back to their typical limits.

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Since 2003, the Belarusian Yearbook project has evolved as a joint effort of the Belarusian expert community to compile, conceptualize, and deliver a chronicle of Belarus’s contemporary history.

Contributing to Belarusian Yearbook 2018 were independent analysts and experts, as well as specialists representing various think tanks, including Institute of Political Studies “Political Sphere”, Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS), Belarusian Institute for Public Administration Reform and Transformation (BIPART), School of Young Managers in Public Administration (SYMPA), Minsk Dialogue Expert Initiative, Ostrogorski Centre, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC), Belarus Security Blog analytical project, Centre Ecumena, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” (Kyiv), Institute of International Relations (Warsaw, Poland), Agency for Social and Political Expert Appraisal, and the website of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (“Our Opinion”).